We continue to hope for a diplomatic solution, although due to the extreme demands being made by Russia, we consider it unlikely at this time. However, as long as they’re talking, they’re not shooting. Russia and NATO have been engaging in talks with little indication of progress. Russia has responded that this would be “an act of war,” although it has not made any specific threats. The United States has also stated that it will implement “severe” economic sanctions against both Russia and President Vladimir Putin personally if Russia crosses the Ukraine border, and that these sanctions would be proportional to the size of the invasion. They are, however, supplying Ukraine with military hardware as well as assistance with intelligence and logistics, and the United States has suggested it will support any Ukrainian insurgency in the event of an invasion. NATO and the United States have both stated they will not be deploying troops to Ukraine in the event of a Russian invasion. We consider this to be less likely due to the manpower required to successfully invade and hold that much territory, as well as the increased chance of military intervention from western nations that would result from such a move. The next most likely scenario is a massive full-scale invasion of Ukraine from all fronts with the intent of taking Kyiv and establishing a pro-Russian government in place of the current more western-friendly Zelensky administration. This would establish a land bridge between Russia and Crimea, which is of immense strategic importance to Russia.
How large that incursion might actually be remains to be seen, but the most likely scenario is Russia moving in from the southeast and capturing territory south of line from Luhanks to Donetsk to Zaporizhzhia, and then southwest to Kherson along the Dnieper River. The buildup far exceeds what Russia had in place when they annexed Crimea in 2014, and there is global concern of another incursion into Ukrainian territory within the next four weeks or so. Russian troop placements currently have Ukraine surrounded, with troops and equipment in Belarus to the north, Russia to the east, Crimea to the south, and Moldova to the west. Russia continues to amass troops and military hardware around Ukraine at an unprecedented level. However, there are events occurring in the world theater which require closer monitoring. There are currently no imminent nuclear threats at this time.
0 kommentar(er)
